Skepticblog

Of course my predcition for election day was100% correct! Need you ask? The proof is all there printed out in the sealed envelope, honest. But really when we drill down to the bottom line, who cares? Since right now the tabloid media isn’t exactly busting down my door for my visions, the particular sealed envelope in question may have to remain sealed and left as a sort of time capsule to be revealed by some future generation. I don’t even mind taking my accolades posthumously if that’s the way it has to be. Look at how well Nostradamus has done with his rants.

Now if I had been taped beforehand on the air with The Skeptologists, this whole scenario might have turned out differently…  Such is the plight of the unknown psychic: The discerning soothesayer has to have a platform to hurl from. Without that, there’s no place for anything to stick to. Without a following, a meatheaded television interviewer or a publisher, there’s no telling how many fantastic visions and prognostications go completely ignored by the masses. And what a shame that is right? I find most of them that I read hilariously surrealistic. Most psychics put out such ridiculous tripe, it’s like they are not even trying. Give me a break. What good does it do to predict the end of the world – again? Fortunately or unfortunately depending on which side of the fence you are sitting on, there’s always someone somewhere publishing these space-fillers. It could be The National Enquirer, The Weekly World News or possibly even Skeptic magazine. In 1991 the predictions printed in the Enquirer turned out to be only 1.1% correct. A chimp could do better than that. Now with the Internet, there’s no end to the possibilities. Predictions are like finding faces in clouds or patterns on a shag rug. They are all over the place once you start looking for them. There’s no limit to the things anyone can predict and with so much crap out there, it’s possible one or two of them might by the laws of probability actually come true. I only missed predicting that whole Madonna divorce story by a week or two. Damn. Timing is everything. Or is it belief that is everything? I frequently get the two mixed up.

But again, who cares a fig what a person like myself might predict anyway? I could claim to be Jeanne Dixon re-incarnated, but she was not that good at predicting either. She got that one JFK hit right … big deal. How does one get a track record in the predicting business anyway? Is it called “luck?” – which leads to another irritating little belief we might one day examine…

In the meantime, I’ll make a short list of some of the things that “come to mind” and get them ready just in case we hit prime time. Why not? Dogs and pet predicions are aways popular or maybe something about the British royals finally returning to their grey reptilian roots might have to be dredged up if I can’t think of anything better. Right now nobody’s asking so I’ll stick with the “rock-star fall” bit for a few more days. BTW: With self-fulfilling prophecies being what they have sometimes been known to be and in the rare instance that dear old Ozzy is reading this right now, mind the step mate.

“I almost had a psychic girlfriend but she left me before we met.” – Steven Wright

First, I want to point out a great post on the Daily Kos regarding the accuracy of exit poll data. I’ve seen several stories citing AP exit poll data about the predominance of blacks voting for Proposition 8. While it’s certainly fine to cite the data, the unreliability of the information should be mentioned as well. A bit of digging offers up the AP methodology and this explanation of exit polls by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.

Second, I would like to thank Michael for a fantastic post regarding Proposition 8. As usual, his eloquence and logic are hard to beat. I just wish more people would read his writings. I wish more people would read in general rather than simply parroting what they hear in propagandist advertising. (continue reading…)

In my podcast Skeptoid, I cover a lot of topics. Some of them are fresh to many listeners, some of them, not so much. I’ve talked about tales as hoary as Roswell, The Amityville Horror, Bigfoot, and The Philadelphia Experiment. Things we’ve all heard a thousand times, and about which there’s often not much new to say.

Am I preaching to the choir? Am I wasting my breath? Am I repeating old information to an audience that’s already tired of hearing about it? If I were, that would probably be a waste of time. Maybe skeptical outreach should avoid the old subjects.

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Skeptics love The Mythbusters. The TV show brings the ideas of science and skepticism into the homes of millions of people every week. Adam Savage is a regular at Randi’s The Amaz!ng Meetings, in fact.

Adam Savage and his Darwin 08 shirt.

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Yes, of course I have already predicted the winner of the election!

The prediction has been sealed in an envelope and placed in a locked safe here in L.A.

Predictions are a subject I would like to see covered by the Skeptologists. I can see the future. I can predict what card you will choose from a pack of shuffled cards, know in advance which ESP symbol you will choose or what image you are thinking about out of thousands. Of course, they have to be my cards, symbols and images, but that’s beside the point when you are in the audience.

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Ah, Pre-Production.  Think of it as cramming for the big test, or making weight for the fight, or preparing for cadacism.. Oh wait, strike last last bit.

Pre-Production is where all the wheels are set in motion for a production project. By the name of it, I’m guessing you figured out that much, so far on your own.  The team and I had been discussing the finer points of the show, and finding our talent and coming up with great ideas. It was time to set a date, and like a wedding, once you set that date, it’s kinda like chasing a burning fuse. Things start to move very quickly.

We chose to shoot the first week of April, and true to skeptic form, we decided to have everyone assemble in L.A. for the first time on April first.  Boy, I could have played a really rotten April Fool’s joke that night, But I thought better of it. 

We had Skeptologists arriving from all over in a symphony of plane and car schedules. But before all of that could happen, a lot of work by a lot of fine folks had to take place.  We had to figure out just what we were going to shoot, where it would happen and how to get it all done in the precious four days that we had with the cast. Four days.

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What the Bible says about homosexuality and other abominations

Today voters go to the polls in California to vote for or against Proposition 8, which “Eliminates Right of Same-Sex Couples to Marry.” If passed, Prop 8 will “change the California Constitution to eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry in California.” A new section would be added, stating “only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California.” Because of the importance of precedence in the law, and the size and importance of California in American politics, this proposition is historic. The issue of Gay marriage in particular, and homosexuality in general, is a case study in how religion, especially Christianity, has erred egregiously. (continue reading…)

Blogs are a great form of communication, which is why I think they are one of the more successful Web 2.0 experiments. They allow for an author or group of authors to quickly convey news, information, or editorial to a self-selective audience. The format is rather open, so blog entries can be as short or as long as necessary. They easily include links to references or further reading.

I also find them a great balance between casual communication and formal articles. They tend to be more structured and thorough than, say, a long e-mail you might write to a friend. But they don’t require the time and attention to detail that a print article would (I typically spend 10-20 times as long to write an article meant for print as a blog entry). I find this a good balance in terms of quality and quantity of output.

But perhaps the best feature of blogs is that they are interactive. Blogs are asymetrical in terms of the direction of information flow (as opposed to message boards, for example) – the authors get to decide on topics and provide the bulk of information. But readers (on most blogs) are able to leave comments. This gives them the opportunity to add further information, to bring up points missed in the original blog, to askfor clarification, and to correct errors.

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I am not a medical doctor and I don’t even play one on TV!  So how am I qualified to write about Chinese medicine?  Well because I grew up with it! Is that really good enough?  Yes, and every Chinese who grew up in a Chinese household in a Chinese community are inculcated with knowledge about Chinese medicine and how it works.  Like any other Chinese kid growing up, when I was sick my mother could quickly diagnose my illness and if she couldn’t, she could turn to her mother or aunts or other higher authority figures. In more severe cases, there’s always the guy selling herbs. (continue reading…)