From the Huffington Post:

I have also read that this flu outbreak is a massive government/pharmaceutical company conspiracy to sell more Tamiflu. Quite conveniently, Tamiflu is one of two antiviral therapies to which the virus is not resistant. Hence, Roche stands to make a fair bit of money from this flu scare.

The other even more entertaining theory is that a pharma company or research lab is behind the creation of the virus. For some reason, it is more difficult for the conspiracy theorists to believe that the virus could have emerged naturally than that… “it came from the lab” (should be read aloud with a spooky edge to the voice).

Learn some basic biology people.Viruses mutate and evolve very quickly. They can recombine with material from other similar viruses. In the case of Influenza A, there is not much separating the avian and the mammalian strains genetically. They mix and match their bits and pieces all the time.

Most of the time, it is of no consequence. The virus is in the wrong environment to be transmitted to a suitable host, the mutations aren’t quite virulent enough to cause a problem in human populations, they aren’t spread easily enough… any number of things can keep the virus from spreading.

However, every once in a while, the virus gets it all right. That’s what we worry about. That’s why the world’s health organizations respond seriously to even a mild threat.

The conspiracy theorists can postulate all they want about governmental influence, secret organizations, and even space aliens. But, it all comes down to parsimony. The simplest explanation is often right.

US Airways Flight 1549

As if it wasn’t enough to expect us to believe that the Twin Towers could collapse from plane impacts and fire alone, now “THEY” want us to believe that an aircraft could make a perfect landing in a river and everyone could just stroll right out like nothing’s wrong.

When I first heard that there were actually conspiracy theories and that this plane crash never actually happened, I thought it was a joke. Someone did write a great lampoon theory on Skeptalk — which admittedly took me a minute to realize it was a joke — but check out what one forum poster has actually claimed.

On January 15, 2009, US Airways Flight 1549 lost both engines after takeoff to bird strikes and ditched into the Hudson River. In one of the best pieces of news in a long time, all survived, with only one injury, albeit serious. The NTSB’s preliminary accident report is here.

Blogger Martin at The Lay Scientist made some great comments on this thread by “TruthSleuth” at AirlinePilotForums.com where actual pilots were discussing the actual event. TruthSleuth said:

I’m not a conspiracy theorist…

… But I’m also not into coincidence theories, either.

I’m VERY troubled by yesterday’s ditching of Flight 1549. It doesn’t make sense to me.

Consider these points:

- Apparently, a flock of birds knocked out two engines but didn’t leave an impact on the nose (as you know much more flimsy than engines).

- This picture is heavily Photoshopped… when you zoom in, you see all sorts of cut and paste artwork… even the USAir logo is pasted onto the plane. Why?

Also in this picture are dozens and dozens of “survivors”… it’s hard to count because the picture is so fuzzy and distant (a common theme… distant and fuzzy pics). How can more than 20 people stand on a wing and not collapse it?

- Where are the closeup pictures… if you watch any of the coverage yesterday, all of the camera angles were distant shots… even with the media within hundreds of yards of the scene. Why?

- As of this moment, I’ve yet to see a single video of the ditching… not one, And I’ve searched everywhere (including YouTube) — how can this be? Everyone seems to have a cell phone these days… especially in New York. What about CCTV cameras from the Port Authority… someone has to have a video of this, yet we see nothing. Why?

- One pilot (who if I remember posted here in this thread) lived near the crash scene admits he didn’t see the plane ditch… didn’t hear the plane ditch, but then saw the plane floating. Odd don’t you think?

- The only witnesses of the actual ditching were members of the media (who as you know cover all sorts of things up)… example:

“I just thought, ‘Why is it so low?’ And, splash, it hit the water,” said witness Barbara Sambriski, a researcher at The Associated Press.

- The media is reporting, “It appears to be the first time that a large commercial jet liner ever has made a successful controlled landing into a body of water.” Another coincidence. A “Miracle” is the media mantra about this. Can this plane really survive a ditching without nearly a scratch… really?

I could go on and on with minor stuff, but I hope you get my drift.

Don’t think a bird can hurt an airliner’s engine? Here’s a GNARLY YouTube video of a 757 sucking up a bird (you can actually see the bird go in), and then the engine flames out. Then you can hear the radio conversation as the pilot calls a MayDay and they arrange for his emergency landing. Luckily for this guy, he still had one engine to get around on.

Don’t think an airplane wing can hold the weight of 75 people standing on it? Just check out this video of a wing load test on a Boeing 777. Not the same type of plane as Flight 1549, but it gives you some idea of the standards these type of craft are built to. The wing actually bends 24 feet before shattering.

Note that each wing of an A320 on the ground must support the weight of about 19,000 kg of fuel, or 42,000 pounds, or the weight of 278 people who weigh 150 pounds each. And it’s certainly not engineered to break at that point. No, TruthSleuth, the weight of 75 people is not a problem for an A320′s wing to support, even if it was not floating and supported by the buoyancy of the fuel in the tank.

It’s fair that the videos of the plane crashing into the water hadn’t yet been found and released at the time TruthSleuth wrote his post. TruthSleuth seems to suspect that there’s a more probable way that that 1549 could have gotten into the river without being seen. Like, being trucked along the roads, reassembled at the water’s edge, craned into the water, and towed into position, without anyone noticing.

But we could go on and on addressing each of TruthSleuth’s concerns, and that’s been done both in Martin’s blog and on the pilots’ forum. He asks fair questions, that any reasonable person might ask. Joe Blow on the street doesn’t happen to know engineering details of the A320. But TruthSleuth is clearly not just a reasonable person asking reasonable questions.

1. He calls himself “TruthSleuth”. He begins with the (to him) obvious presumption that there is a hidden truth here. To him, CONSPIRACY is the default hypothesis. Note that the first words out of his mouth are to be defensive about this.
2. Delusional claims of Photoshopping. Come on, supposedly someone is spending millions of dollars to accomplish this fake ditching, and they forget to paint the name of the airline on the side of the plane? And then they set about to CG every single frame of news footage? And then, what, pay off all the salvage workers and NTSB investigators who have the wreckage in front of them, to have them pretend to see “US AIRWAYS” on the side of the plane? This is not a reasonable question. Seeing something incredible in a photograph that’s clearly not there (whether it’s a Bigfoot or evidence of Photoshopping) is a classical delusion.
3. Repeated use of the word “coincidence”. Conspiracy theorists see coincidences everywhere, too incredible to believe. But I can’t think of a single coincidence associated with this event. What is he seeing?

Anyway, it’s a sad thing. But, to be fair, everyone is delusional to some degree. Whether you think everyone in the room is looking at you because you have a hair out of place, or whether you think George Bush towed Flight 1549 out into the Hudson River, it’s a delusion. The closer we can all get to the “low” end of that spectrum, the better. I don’t know if rationally answering TruthSleuth’s questions will push him in that direction, because I don’t think his questions stem from an honest desire to learn, but rather from a desire to justify his delusion. But rationally answering them is always the best response.

All right, I guess I should get out more often!  I finally met a real life conspiracy nut in person and I have to admit that the experience disturbed me more than I thought it should.  I met someone who is sure that the water vapor tails left in the atmosphere by jet engines (contrails) are really chemical sprays (Chemtrails) commissioned by the U.S. government for some nefarious purpose.  Yes, I have heard of them in passing, along with the 911 “Truther” and the JFK conspiracy nuts but I never thought I’d actually talk to a live one! 

Since my stints on CBS Survivor (Season 14 Fiji and Season 16 Micronesia), I had the opportunity to travel and meet more people outside of my ordinary mundane State civil service job life than I ever dreamt I would.  In the last year, I travelled more than I ever did in the last 10 years before that – so I have spent more time hanging out, waiting in airports than actually flying in planes! A month ago, I was in Long Island, New York for a Survivor fundraiser event. My flight home was scheduled to leave JFK at 9am but the shuttle from the Long Island hotel ran only every 2 hours!  Taking into account that weekend’s rainy weather and unpredictable traffic, I decided to wake up early to take the 5am shuttle instead of the 7 am.  That morning the rain had stopped and the roads were clear, putting me at JFK a little after 6 am – giving me 3 hours of hanging out at the waiting area.  

As soon as I got to the boarding area,  I was recognized by a clean-cut, well-dressed middle-age man who asked for my autograph and picture taken with him.  I obliged.  Then he sat down next to me and asked me if I mind talking to him about my Survivor experience.  Sure, we have 2 ½ more hours to kill. He introduced himself as a fan of the show and then after a few questions about making of reality-TV shows, asked if I mind moving to seats nearer to the glass wall over-looking our plane while we talked.  No problem as I thought that “Bob” could be some aviation buff and likes planes.  As we talked, in between his questions about how the show was made, etc., I noticed that he was distracted sometimes, with intense interest in all the activities around the ground crews preparing our plane.  (It was an originating direct JFK to SFO flight, and not a stopover; which could account for the more than usual activities around the plane.)  My curiosity got better of me and so I finally asked him about his interest in the fueling, and other maintenance activities around our plane.

That was it!  Bob start in about Chemtrails.  He asked if I knew anything about it and when I plead ignorance, he was more than glad to fill me in on all the details.  I will not go into the gory details of this conspiracy and leave it to you to Google “Chemtrails” to learn all about it.  Bob seemed like a very reasonable and personable normal guy when we first met just 30 minutes earlier.  But as soon as he started on the Chemtrail conspiracy, I felt like I was cornered by a Hare Krishna or a Moonie proselytizer!   He was sure that someone like me, schooled in the sciences would know how “it works” and how “they” do it! 

By then, we still have more than 90 minutes from boarding.  This was one of the only times since my TV appearance that I wish I would be recognized by more people at the waiting area so they would interrupt me and give me a good excuse to stop talking to Bob!  But alas, it was not a very full flight and there were no fellow passenger/Survivor-Fan to my rescue.  The more he got into the whole Chemtrail conspiracy the more fantastic it sounded.  If I were just reading what he was telling me, I would have dismissed it as a good spoof on conspiracy theories or at best the rambling of a deluded individual.  But there I was talking to a completely normal person till the subject of his pet peeve about our government came up! 

Since I knew very little about this Chemtrail thing, my curiosity was aroused!  And as luck would have it, that flight had a WiFi service! I had to Google “Chemtrail” as soon as I can turn on my laptop!  (For $9.95, a passenger with a computer or iPhone can have access to wireless Internet service for the duration of the flight.  That’s way too cheap, I thought. How many years and users would the airline need to have to recoup their investment in that infrastructure to provide that service at that rate? If it were not for this burning desire to learn more about Chemtrail conspiracy, I would have never had any reason to spend $9.95 for Internet access on a 5 hour flight!  Well, the question was quickly answered – they make their money selling ads – every time a new page loaded, it was preceded by an arrival city targeted ads for car rentals, airport shuttle services, hotels, spas and of course a special discount code for fancy high-end luggage in case they lost yours on your current flight!  Now, that’s a conspiracy worth looking into!) 

Since that encounter at JFK, I’ve been asking myself why that experience was so special if not profound for me.  Yes, Bob was the first real walking, talking conspiracy nut I’ve met in person, but I’m sure he would not be the last.  The more I learn about the Chemtrail nonsense, the more incredulous I am and find myself unable to shake the feeling that Bob was pulling my leg!  The whole Chemtrail conspiracy theory is almost a caricature of all conspiracy theories.  Is it possible that anyone of sound mind could really believe that the “government” is somehow controlling the citizenry by doping them up with chemicals sprayed military jets and jetliners, with the corporation of commercial aviation?  I grew up with a mother who is absolutely certain that she has had encounters with ghosts and spirits; I have aunts and uncles who are sure that Feng-Shui is a science, so it’s not like I’m unfamiliar with people who believes weird stuff. I guess it’s cultural conditioning. Objectively, their beliefs make no more sense than believing that water vapor trailing hot jet engines are chemical sprays. So, while I have no problem believing that my relatives really believe what they believe, I still have the nagging feeling that Bob was pulling my leg all along and that now he can brag at the next office party about putting one on on a D-list celebrity.